Something important about S&P 500 Index (as of Feb. 28, 2017)

S&P Index at inflection points

Source: J.P.Morgan Asset Management, as of Feb. 28, 2017

  Read more »

Comparing the industries performance during the crisis time of 2008 and 2009.

2008.

S&P: -38,5%

Dow Jones: -33,8%

Nasdaq: -40,5%

No one industry was in positive territory by performance in 2008.It looks like biotechnology industry not much depends on general market movements. This industry is popular among investors in 21^st century. The index BTK declined 17,72% in 2008 which is the lowest negative performance among the economy. Read more »

Talent to Predict What Has Already Happened.

The graph below is taken from Montier’s 2002 study. It shows evidence of returns compared with the average forecast of analysts (the so-called “consensus forecast”). Analysts as a group, change their opinions regarding the dynamics of returns only when the changes have already occurred. Lag time when the analysts “came around” is distinctly seen, starting from the time indicated by the oval. Morals in a bull market: “Don’t confuse brains with a bull market”. Morals in any market: “Count only on yourself. Save your self-respect – don’t listen to the analysts”.    

  Read more »

The 21st Century: A victory for bonds.

Read more »

Талант предсказывать то, что уже произошло.

График ниже взят из исследования Монтьера 2002 года. Он показывает фактические данные по прибыли в сравнении со средним прогнозом аналитиков (так называемый “консенсус-прогноз”). Аналитики, как группа, меняют свои мнения о динамике прибыли лишь тогда, когда изменения уже произошли. Лаг времени, когда аналитики “очнулись”, четко прослеживается, считая от времени, обозначенного овалом. Мораль на бычьем рынке: “Don’t confuse brains with a bull market”. Мораль на любом рынке: “Рассчитывай только на себя. Аналитиков слушать – себя не уважать”.

21 век: победа за облигациями.

Irrationality: the connection between the growth in corporate profits and the S&P Index

Corporate reporting for the 1^st quarter of 2012 has started. But in terms of investments, there is something wrong with the graph

Read more »

Иррациональность: о связи роста прибылей корпораций и индекса S&P.

Сезон корпоративной отчетности за 1 квартал 2012 года стартовал. Но с точки зрения инвестиционной теории на графике что-то не так.:)

Read more »

Январь 2012: ключевые события рынков.

January 30, 2012

EU summit reached two results, first, 25 countries agreed to sign the financial contract, strict control of the budget; two completed ahead of schedule 7 is to determine the current crisis of 500 billion euros “firewall.” 130 EU summit held on to progress the establishment of a fiscal union, the United Kingdom Read more »

S&P Growth Mosaic by Sector

Read more »