Posts tagged: forecast

Talent to Predict What Has Already Happened.

The graph below is taken from Montier’s 2002 study. It shows evidence of returns compared with the average forecast of analysts (the so-called “consensus forecast”). Analysts as a group, change their opinions regarding the dynamics of returns only when the changes have already occurred. Lag time when the analysts “came around” is distinctly seen, starting from the time indicated by the oval. Morals in a bull market: “Don’t confuse brains with a bull market”. Morals in any market: “Count only on yourself. Save your self-respect – don’t listen to the analysts”.    

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