Posts tagged: Dow Jones

Об одном интересном исследовании.

Одним из предубеждений людей в инвестиционном процессе является чрезмерная самоуверенность в количественных оценках рынка, доходности, вероятностей и т. п. Пример самоуверенности показали Кларк и Статмэн в одном из своих исследований, заключающемся в следующем.

В 1986 году индекс Доу Джонса, по условиям расчета которого дивиденды, выплаченные компаниями индекса, не реинвестируются, имел значение 40. В 1998 году его значение достигло 9000. Как вы считаете, каким было бы значение индекса Доу Джонса, если бы дивиденды, выплачиваемые компаниями индекса, реинвестировались и увеличивали его значение? Попробуйте угадать хотя бы ранг и порядок значений.

Ответ: при реинвестировании дивидендов, выплачиваемых компаниями индекса, значение Доу Джонса составило бы 652230 в 1998 году! Те, кто назвал значение, близкое к порядку этой цифры, не страдают чрезмерной самоуверенностью при инвестиционном анализе:)

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An Interesting Study…

One of the prejudices people encounter in the investment process is overconfidence in the quantitative estimates of the market, profitability, probability, etc. The following  is an example of overconfidence which is shown in research conducted by Clark and Statman.

In 1986, the Dow Jones was evaluated under the condition that the dividends paid by companies within the index are not reinvested and thus was set to 40 points. In 1998, the index was at 9000 points. What do you think the value of the Dow Jones would be if companies within the index were reinvested and increased its value? Try to guess at least the range and order values.

Answer: If the dividends paid by the companies of the index would have been reinvested, the Dow Jones would have been 652,230 in 1998! Those who suggested a number close to that do not suffer from overconfidence in regards to investment analysis :)

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Comparing the industries performance during the crisis time of 2008 and 2009.

2008.

S&P: -38,5%

Dow Jones: -33,8%

Nasdaq: -40,5%

No one industry was in positive territory by performance in 2008.It looks like biotechnology industry not much depends on general market movements. This industry is popular among investors in 21st century. The index BTK declined 17,72% in 2008 which is the lowest negative performance among the economy. Read more »

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QE3: Time to Take Profit or Stay in the Trend?

S&P 500 has grown by 2.5% since the beginning of September, 2012. The market owns this growth to 2 days: the 6th of September, when the president of the European Central Bank announced the repurchase of problem assets (S&P 500 grew by 2.02% in a day) and the 13th of September, when Ben Bernanke, the Head of the FRS announced the MBS repurchase for $40B per month (S&P grew by 1.63% in a day). The rest of the month investors were quiet and trying to comprehend what to do next: sell based on fulfilled expectations or buy commodities, high yield bonds, and risky stocks. Read more »

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How does the Dow Jones grow legs?

So, the early 2012 rally has been launched. The risk appetite was aroused by the acquired tolerance to the problems in the Euro zone (the market had hardly reacted to the actual default in Greece) rather than the fundamental indexes; as well as the understanding that politicians, as slow as they are, will do anything to save Greece. Most importantly, it was investor confidence that the world’s major central banks would be ready to print the right amount of money in the foreseeable future. If money does not flow into the real economy, it flows into financial markets. Read more »

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Откуда у Dow Jones ноги растут…

Итак, ралли начала 2012 года состоялось. Аппетит к риску пробудили скорее не фундаментальные показатели, а “привыкание” к проблемам в зоне евро (на “фактический” дефолт Греции рынок почти не отреагировал), понимание, что хотя и “черепашьими” темпами, политики сделают все для ее сохранения. И, главное Read more »

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Доходность индустрий и мировых рынков в январе 2012 года.

Доходность мировых рынков в январе 2012 года.

Country / Region

Return for January 2012

India

13,34%

Vietnam

13,30%

Argentina

13,18%

Latin America

12,47%

Emerging Markets

11,18%

Brazil Read more »
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