A Columbia University study suggested that with a fleet of just 9,000 autonomous cars, Uber could replace every taxi cab in New York City – passengers would wait an average of 36 seconds for a ride that costs about $0.50 per mile. Such convenience and low cost will make car ownership inconceivable, and autonomous, on-demand taxis – the ‘transportation cloud’ – will quickly become dominant form of transportation – displacing far more than just car ownership, it will take the majority of users away from public transportation as well. With their $41 billion valuation, replacing all 171,000 taxis in the United States is well within the realm of feasibility – at a cost of $25,000 per car, the rollout would cost a mere $4.3 billion.
- Car ownership has been rising with the growing global middleclass. There are 3.5 billion or so global middle and this could rise to 5.5 billion by 2030
- Self driving cars will start bending that curve or car and vehicle ownership and the growth of driving and driving related jobs
- Intel just announced they will spend $15.3 billion to buy Mobileye (a maker of self driving car components)
- Qualcomm spent $47 billion to buy NXP, the largest automotive chip supplier
- Google, Uber, Ford, Tesla, Nvidia and others are pushing hard to make self driving cars
- Regulation and laws
Peak Car – Rise and fall or car ownership
According to a forecast by PwC, a total of 107.4 million vehicles will be manufactured worldwide in 2020. Globally over 90 million motor vehicles were produced in 2015 and there were about 73 million passenger cars built.
Self driving cars will mean that far fewer drivers and cars and trucks will be needed to fulfill many of the motor vehicle related tasks.
- Delivery of goods
- Non-commuting passenger travel Read more »