BlackRock Investment Institute: Asset Class Expected Return For 5 Years and Long-Term

The BlackRock Investment Institute publishes capital market assumptions and asset class return every quarter. Five-year and long-term equilibrium annualised return assumptions are in geometric terms. There are long-term volatility and correlation assumptions. Global equities are represented by the MSCI World ex USA Index in the correlation assumptions; global treasuries by the Barclays Global Aggregate Treasury Index ex US. We break down each asset class into factor exposures and analyse those factors’ historical volatilities and correlations over the past 15 years. Expected return estimates are subject to uncertainty and error. Expected returns for each asset class can be conditional on economic scenarios; in the event a particular scenario comes to pass, actual returns could be significantly higher or lower than forecasted.

 

Fixed Income

Source: BlackRock Investment Institute, July 2016.

 

Equities and Alternatives

Source: BlackRock Investment Institute, July 2016.

 

Source: https://www.blackrockblog.com/blackrock-capital-markets-assumptions-2/#

Disclosure: This website contains the public articles, and this communication is for informational purposes only. Nothing herein should be construed as my opinion, solicitation, recommendation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or product, and does not constitute legal or tax advice. The information contained herein has been obtained from publicly available sources believed to be reliable but we do not guarantee accuracy or completeness. Do not act or rely upon the information and advice given in this publication without seeking the services of competent and professional investment, legal, tax, or accounting counsel.

 

 

 

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