#1 Cigarette and Tobacco Manufacturing
Risk Score: 7.10
Revenue Growth: -0.4%
At-Risk Companies: Altria, Reynolds American, Lorillard
Description: Reduced demand for cigarettes and a forecasted annualized 1.5% rise in the cost of tobacco over the next five years impair this industry’s ability to make a profit.
#2 Soda Production
Risk Score: 6.69
Revenue Growth: -1.3%
At-Risk Companies: Coca-Cola, PepsiCo
Description: External competition and health concerns which reduce consumption will push sales downwards over the next five years. Lower prices for plastic and corn syrup benefit profit margins in the short-term.
#3 Formal Wear and Costume Rental
Risk Score: 6.45
Revenue Growth: -1.1%
Description: Consumer behavior moves from rentals to purchases due to the availability of low-cost imports. Baby boomers with higher disposable incomes also prefer purchases over rentals. Tuxedo rentals will continue to drive industry demand.
Risk Score: 6.35
Revenue Growth: +1.1%
Description: Measures against overfishing, volatile weather patterns, and changing migration patterns will limit the size of a catch, and therefore, the revenue opportunity in this industry. Aquaculture is not included as part of the fishing industry.
#5 Furniture Repair & Reupholstery
Risk Score: 6.27
Revenue Growth: -2.0%
Description: This industry will be adversely impacted by countercyclical demand — people are more likely to buy new furniture as their incomes rise, rather than repair an old couch. An organic increase in demand for new furniture, buoyed by low-cost foreign manufacturers, dampens the outlook for repair and reupholstery. Industry profitability will be further damaged by rising costs for inputs.
#6 Business Certification and IT Schools
Risk Score: 6.21
Revenue Growth: -5.6%
Description: The industry faces rising competition from junior colleges and trade schools, as students seek to improve their credentials in a persistently weak labor market. In addition, IT courses are quickly becoming obsolete for younger genereations who were practically raised in front of a computer.
#7 Gift Shops and Card Stores
Risk Score: 6.19
Revenue Growth: -1.9%
Description: Virtual cards and social media are sending traditional cards the way of the woolly mammoth. This industry’s growth rate correlates strongly with disposable income, which contracted during the recession.
#8 Homeowners’ Associations
Risk Score: 6.17
Revenue Growth: +2.6%
Description: Homeownership rates, which declined when the housing bubble burst, go hand-in-hand with homeowners’ associations. As a result of the recession, fewer homeowners will have the means and desire to pay fees to these organizations.
#9 Shoe and Footwear Manufacturing
Risk Score: 6.14
Revenue Growth: -1.8%
Description: Vertical integration and low-cost imports have shifted footwear manufacturing overseas. The number of industry participants is expected to decrease nearly 2% annually while imports are projected to meet over 96% of domestic demand in the next five years.
#10 Business Service Centers
Risk Score: 6.07
Revenue Growth: +0.4%
Description: Digitization reduces the need for mailbox rentals and other services provided by this industry, and its relevance is on a seemingly irreversible decline.
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