«Динамика пользования банковскими кредитами и долговая нагрузка россиян»

Сорок один процент россиян (41%), пользующихся банковскими кредитами, заплатив по ним, оказываются за чертой бедности. Такой результат получили специалисты Высшей школы экономики в своем исследовании «Динамика пользования банковскими кредитами и долговая нагрузка россиян». При этом 1/3 должников в России сегодня тратят на обслуживание потребительских кредитов более половины своего ежемесячного заработка. Для сравнения, в США таких не более 14%. Аналогичная американской ситуация и в странах Евросоюза.

 

Кредитная география 

По состоянию на 1 февраля этого года, совокупная задолженность жителей России перед кредитными организациями превысила 9,7 триллиона рублей. И за год она увеличилась более чем на 2 триллиона. Для сравнения, на 1 февраля прошлого года банки ссудили гражданам более 7,5 триллиона. Речь идет о ссудах, выданных на покупку бытовой техники, мебели, автомобилей, мобильных телефонов, туристические поездки и прочие потребительские расходы. Таким образом, на каждого россиянина, включая стариков и младенцев, теперь приходится не менее 61 с половиной тысячи заемных рублей. Это при средней заработной плате по стране чуть более 27 тысяч рублей в месяц. Read more »

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Европа вне ЕС: как и чем живет Белоруссия?

Несколько интересных фактов о Белоруссии. В ЕС президента Белоруссии Александра Лукашенко считают «последним диктатором Европы», а сам Лукашенко, когда ему нужно было выбирать между двумя союзами, — Европейским и Таможенным — без колебаний выбрал альянс с Россией и Казахстаном.

Основу экспорта Белоруссии составляют нефтепродукты, полученные из российской нефти. Всего в 2013 г. Белоруссия продала за рубеж 13,6 млн т нефтепродуктов на $10,2 млрд при общем экспорте за тот же период в $37,2 млрд. По поводу поставок российской нефти на белорусские НПЗ у Минска с Москвой регулярно возникают разногласия. Они связаны с объемом поставок и их условиями — Белоруссия получает нефть, не уплачивая экспортной пошлины, но возвращает в бюджет России пошлину, полученную от продажи на Запад нефтепродуктов.

Если в Евросоюз Белоруссия экспортирует в основном нефтепродукты, то в Россию идут продукты питания, машины и оборудование для сельского хозяйства. Особая гордость Белоруссии — «БелАЗ», который в сентябре 2013 г. произвел самый большой в мире самосвал грузоподъемностью 450 т., что позволит предприятию войти в Книгу рекордов Гиннесса.

Россия остается основным партнером Белоруссии — как политическим, так и экономическим. В конце мая 2014 г. президенты России, Белоруссии и Казахстана Владимир Путин, Александр Лукашенко и Нурсултан Назарбаев подписали договор о Евразийском экономическом союзе, который должен начать работу с 1 января 2015 г. Создание Евразийского экономического союза предполагает более тесное сотрудничество, чем в рамках Таможенного союза тех же трех стран.

Белоруссия никогда не считалась кандидатом в ЕС даже в отдаленной перспективе. Тем не менее, в 2009 г. Евросоюз пригласил Белоруссию в программу «Восточное партнерство», которая предполагает развитие связей ЕС с бывшими советскими республиками. После выборов 2010 г., когда Александр Лукашенко был переизбран на четвертый срок, отношения Белоруссии и ЕС ухудшились. В 2014 г. министр иностранных дел Белоруссии Владимир Макей заявлял, что в перспективе «нельзя исключить» вступление страны в ЕС, хотя «бежать сломя голову» в альянс Белоруссия не будет. Read more »

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Want To Retire With $1 Million? Here’s how to do it.

We recently looked at how much money you would need to be saving each month in order to be able to retire at 65 with a million dollars assuming you started from zero. Now, here is how much you should have saved up already at different ages in order to hit the goal of being a millionaire retiree. Assuming a 6% annualized rate of return and a monthly contribution of $400 starting at the indicated age, this chart shows the savings balance you need by that age in order to get a total of $1,000,000 by the time you are 65 and ready to retire:

Needed Savings Chart

A 20 year old under these conditions would need to have nothing saved up — putting in $400 a month at a 6% return will get them about $1,113,851 by the time they are 65 Read more »

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Investments: a few of the big lessons.

I’ve learned that changing your mind is one of the most difficult things we do. It is far easier to fool yourself into believing a falsehood than admit a mistake.

I’ve learned that people are terrible at predicting their own emotions. You will be more fearful when the market is crashing and more greedy when it is surging than you think.

I’ve learned that strong political beliefs in either direction limit your ability to make rational decisions more than almost anything else.

I’ve learned that short-term thinking is at the root of most of our problems, whether it’s in business, politics, investing, or work.

I’ve learned that debt can cause more social problems than some drugs, yet drugs are illegal and debt is tax deductible.

I’ve learned that finance is actually very simple, but it’s made to look complicated to justify fees.

I’ve learned that self-interest is the most powerful force in the world. People in unethical, predatory, and nonsense jobs will do mental gymnastics to convince themselves they’re doing the right thing. Those who criticize the behavior of “greedy Wall Street bankers” underestimate their tendency to do the same thing if offered an eight-figure salary.

I’ve learned that people are twice as biased as they think they are, which is precisely why biases are dangerous.

I’ve learned that unsustainable things can last years, even decades, longer than people think.

I’ve learned that journalists’ need to write far exceeds the number of things that need to be written. No writer can say to their boss, “There’s nothing important to write about today,” although it is the truth most days. Read more »

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How Much Longer Will the Dollar Remain the Reserve Currency of the World?

The US Dollar’s status as a reserve currency seems to be a perennial concern for many people these days. As you can see, no one maintains reserve currency status forever.  That shouldn’t be remotely surprising.  The global economy is dynamic and market shares shift.  And at the end of the day that’s what reserve status is really all about.  Think about it – nations accumulate reserves of US dollars today because the US economy is the dominant player in global trade.

Of course, the US Dollar isn’t the only currency that nations maintain reserves of.  The Euro is also a major reserve currency and the Yuan is fast becoming a major reserve currency.  But since the USA produces 22% of all world output it happens to play a particularly special role in the global economy.  By virtue of being the largest economy in the world the accumulation of US dollar denominated financial assets happens to dominate the global financial system.  It’s sort of like being the top market share producer of a particular product in a particular industry.  Other entities accumulate your products because you’re the top producer. And that changes over time. Market shares change and regimes shift with the evolving economy.

So, will the USA lose its reserve currency status at some point?  Yes. Read more »

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Fedor Sannikov: how to make a mountain out of a molehill

To anyone it may concern,

Information has always been and remains a material item – its value depends on the quality and on the demand for it. With the development of the Internet, this product has become more available but not of higher quality. About 2% of all the material we can find on the Internet is information; the rest of it is information noise.

One particular type of information which has formed the basis for the development of whole mini-industries is information about people, both famous and ordinary ones. We are all driven by a sense of our own significance, we work, find self-fulfillment, for example, by writing articles which are noticed by other people, rejoice or suffer disappointment when we are mentioned somewhere. As a result of such information a person develops an “aura” on the Internet.

Companies have emerged which offer “aura” adjustment for 3,000-15,000 dollars a year. They make your aura cleaner by posting positive articles and whole series of articles about the customer, working with search engines, driving negative information, if any exists, into the background. This is to say that how you are perceived on the Internet is, chiefly, defined by your wallet.

I am not a public figure, I am not striving for empty fame, I do not resort to services of aura adjustment on the Internet, but nevertheless, I have healthy ambitions, life plans, and self-respect. Some time ago I found out that despite my humble personality, somebody had tried to slander me. Everything written below is not an attempt to justify myself, but rather a simple analytical explanation of how one can try to create a negative story about a person by making a mountain out of a molehill. I am an analyst, not a journalist, and so my statement will not be distinct in emotionality when perceived.

I started working in the investment industry in the USA in 2008. Having received series 65, 63, 7 and 24 licenses, I started work in an investment adviser and American broker-dealers. We developed six strategies on the basis of which small funds of the same name were created (Global, Income, Dividend, Latin America, Asia and Telecom). For the whole period of work no client of adviser or the fund lost money (this information is contained in adviser’s files which have twice been reviewed by the state regulator specified below). I cannot say that we earned a lot, but I know for sure that I pursued my dream. I am grateful to everyone I worked with in the US investment industry.

After years of working in the US investment industry, my regulatory history is clear, not one client ever filed an official written complaint against me, and there have never been civil or criminal suits from anybody against me.

This fact can be easily verified from anywhere in the world with an Internet connection. Information on persons licensed to work in the US investment industry is public. Anyone can find civil and criminal matters, regulatory actions against licensed persons, customer complaints, etc. on the official websites of the main American investment industry regulators: the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA):

http://www.adviserinfo.sec.gov/IAPD/Content/Search/iapd_Search.aspx

http://www.finra.org/Investors/ToolsCalculators/BrokerCheck/index.htm

Read more »

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