Об урбанизации в Китае.

Согласно последней переписи населения Китая, проведенной в ноябре 2010 года, страна очень быстро урбанизируется. Доля городского населения достигла 49,7% – это на 13,5 п.п. выше, чем в 2000 году. К 2030 году в городах будет проживать миллиард китайцев. Это серьезный вызов для правительства – мегаполисами нужно компетентно управлять и создавать в них и рядом с ними необходимую инфраструктуру. Для поддержания социальной стабильности нужна эффективная система социальной защиты.

В ситуации, когда экономика серьезно замедляется создание крупных городских агломераций может стать источником роста для экономики. Read more »

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Should you sell in August?

“After making several attempts to break through the psychologically important 1700 level, the S&P 500 ended the week down about 0.1%. This is the first week since mid-June that the S&P 500 declined.  While I do not feel that the market is set for a large decline and see any substantial pullback as a long-term buying opportunity, I am expecting some degree of selling in the short-term. The reason is very simple. Although I expect the economy to accelerate in the second half of the year, the second quarter is looking relatively weak. Additionally, top-line revenue growth for the companies within the S&P 500 is looking more and more elusive and earnings growth is lackluster.

Instead of being driven by earnings, the market is rising because P/E multiples are expanding. At the beginning of the year, the S&P 500 had a P/E multiple, based on expected 2013 earnings, of 13.8. As of the end of July, the forward P/E multiple of the S&P 500 is 15.7 times projected earnings estimates.  Effectively, P/E valuation multiples have expanded by 13.7% so far this year. As of July 26th, the S&P 500 is up 19.9%, or 18.8% if you exclude dividends. This means that the majority of the market’s gain can be attributed to stocks becoming more expensive, not underlying earnings growth. Read more »

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Will The Fed Kill Economic Growth?

“When the market is going up, there is a tendency for investors to become more risk averse. Research shows that people tend to be risk-seeking when dealing with losses and risk averse when dealing with gains. As a result, with the market hitting all-time highs, individuals surprisingly are starting to become a little more nervous with regards to the future direction of the market. It is important to remember that market movements are time independent events. The fact the market is hitting new highs has no statistical bearing on what is going to happen next. The market is no more likely to go up or go down given it has appreciated in the past. If anything, there is some data that shows if a market is exhibiting long-term momentum that momentum tends to persist for a few months. The odds of investing in the equity market, over long periods of time, are in an investor’s favor.

Generally speaking the market tends to appreciate at a rate that is roughly 600 basis points, or 6%, above the risk-free rate. The risk-free rate is the rate of return on 3-month treasuries. This rate of growth is surprisingly stable over time and is likely to persist in the future. As a result, on average, an equity investor should plan on having an investment in the market double every eight to ten years. This means if you perform as well as the market has historically, a $1 million investment should grow to roughly $2 million over a ten year period when factoring in the reinvestment of dividends. Read more »

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Россия – первая экономика в Европе!

Россия стала первой экономикой в Европе и пятой – в мире. Это следует из тихо и незаметно обновленной в начале июля базы данных Всемирного банка (ВБ). Он подсчитывает размер ВВП стран мира по паритету покупательной способности (ППС). В обоих списках наша страна по итогам 2012 года обогнала Германию. Но если взглянуть на данные Международного валютного фонда (МВФ) по номинальному размеру ВВП, то есть в текущих долларовых ценах, то окажется, что в 2012 году Россия тоже достигла успехов – переместилась с 9-го на 8-е место, обогнав Италию. Кстати, обновление базы данных привело еще к одному знаменательному событию: Россия из категории стран с доходом выше среднего переместилась в категорию с высоким доходом, о чем много писали СМИ.

Так сейчас выглядит мировой топ-10 по ВВП с учетом ППС, по данным ВБ (в международных $):

  1. США – $15,7 трлн;
  2. Китай – $12,5 трлн;
  3. Индия – $4,8 трлн;
  4. Япония – $4,5 трлн;
  5. Россия – $3,4 трлн;
  6. Германия – $3,3 трлн;
  7. Бразилия – $2,4 трлн;
  8. Франция – $2,4 трлн;
  9. Великобритания – $2,3 трлн;
  10. Мексика – $2 трлн. Read more »
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These Countries Are Toast If China’s Economy Lands Hard

Fears of a major slow down in China will have the country’s major trading  partners on edge. The countries with the most exposure are obviously its Asian neighbors. China has played a key role in the region’s  development over the last three decades. The region’s dependence on China has also increased sharply over the past five years as China emerged as a key source  of end demand at a time when the US, Europe and Japan slowed significantly  post the credit crisis. The slowdown in China’s growth will be transmitted  to the rest of the region largely via trade and financial linkages. Here’s Morgan Stanley on the Asian countries with the most to lose:

Korea and Taiwan: Impacted by Direct  Trade Linkages

In the case of Korea and Taiwan, our economist,  Sharon Lam, believes that Korea is likely to be affected more than Taiwan in a  China slowdown scenario because Korea’s exports to China are mainly for China’s  domestic consumption and investment. Taiwan, on the other hand, as a global  major tech component supplier, uses China as a re-export base. While Taiwan has  heightened its cross- strait economic and commercial ties with China after the  signing of the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement, we believe that such a  relationship and its positive economic impact will be less affected by the  domestic situation in China. Read more »

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Rising Rates: Time to Position, Not Panic.

It finally happened. After endless discussion about the potential for rates to rise, they finally did—in a big way. During May and June, the 10-year US Treasury yield soared by nearly one percent, and markets reeled. Instead of panicking, investors should make sure their portfolios are positioned effectively. Even with the Fed planning to keep short-term rates nailed down for a while, our forecast is for generally higher rates ahead. While there won’t necessarily be a big leap like the one in the second quarter, investors should be positioning their bond portfolios for the reality of higher rates.

The good news: the bond market isn’t a monolith. There are a lot of ways to reduce a portfolio’s sensitivity, or “beta,” to interest rates while staying true to investment goals. The display below uses US Treasury returns to represent the behavior of an extremely interest-rate-sensitive sector. A sector with a beta to Treasuries that’s close to one is also highly rate sensitive. A beta of zero indicates a sector with no relationship to Treasury returns. When it comes to rising rates, the lower the beta the better. Read more »

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Why Clients Fire Financial Advisors?

Rita Gunther McGrath, an
 Associate Professor
 at the Columbia University Business School, knows a thing or two about numbers and performance. When she didn’t like the numbers and performance she was seeing from her financial advisor, she took a simple, direct step – she fired her advisor. “It was really all about poor performance,” McGrath says. “I was with them for seven years and ended up with less money than I had sent to them. Honestly, I’d have been better off leaving it sitting in a bank account.” McGrath said her advisor had a poor understanding of her needs.

There are no hard and fast numbers on how often clients fire their financial advisors, but it’s an issue on the radar screen of financial services professionals and certainly on the radar screen of their investment clients. But what are the primary drivers that cause clients to pull a Donald Trump on their investment advisors? Read more »

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Hedge Fund Alpha is Negative; Down Around 1700 BPs in 11 Years.

Adam Parker of Morgan Stanley is out with a new report on the S&P 500. He notes that hedge fund alpha has tanked since early 200s and today is still negative, with a drop of about 1700 basis points. At the same time correlation is up making many hedge funds appear to be nothing more than closet index funds. Morgan Stanley sees the S&P 500 (.INX) in 2014 at 1600 in the base case scenario . However, the most interesting data is on hedge fund alpha and hedge fund correlation with the S&P 500 (.INX).

 

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Золотой стандарт не спасет от кризиса

В мире снова звучат призывы вернуть золотой стандарт. Но в современном мире, где золото из реальной ценности превратилось в бренд, введение золотого стандарта может привести к драматическим последствиям. Во времена, когда рынки трясет, инвесторам хочется спокойствия и определенности. Поэтому любая валютная лихорадка приводит к возобновлению ностальгических разговоров о старых добрых временах золотого стандарта. Сейчас дискуссия о возвращении системы, когда валюта привязана к золоту, разгорелись с новой силой. Поклонники золотого стандарта утверждают, что это саморегулируемая и прозрачная модель, с помощью которой проще всего установить точную стоимость денег. Профессор экономики Университета Тулузы Стефано Уголини в своем исследовании доказал, что это не совсем так. Read more »

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Goldman Sachs: Китай утонет и утянет за собой сырьевые рынки.

Жесткая посадка Китая – это вопрос времени, уверены аналитики Goldman Sachs. Если этот апокалиптический сценарий реализуется, в ближайшие три года цены на медь, свинец и цинк упадут на 50%. Предстоящая остановка экономики КНР вызывает все меньше сомнений у экономистов. С лета прошлого года прогноз аналитиков по темпам роста ВВП Китая планомерно ухудшался. Сейчас эксперты окончательно сошлись во мнении, что в этом году экономика Поднебесной вырастет не больше, чем на 7,5%. Этот же показатель заложен в планах правительства.

Экономическая картина выглядела бы неплохо, если бы не одно “но”. Китайские власти, известные стремлением перевыполнить план, всегда закладывают в свои прогнозы минимальные темпы роста ВВП. И до последнего времени годовой прирост экономики значительно превосходил заявленные цели. Дальше КНР ожидает еще большее замедление экономики. Read more »

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