QE3: Time to Take Profit or Stay in the Trend?

S&P 500 has grown by 2.5% since the beginning of September, 2012. The market owns this growth to 2 days: the 6th of September, when the president of the European Central Bank announced the repurchase of problem assets (S&P 500 grew by 2.02% in a day) and the 13th of September, when Ben Bernanke, the Head of the FRS announced the MBS repurchase for $40B per month (S&P grew by 1.63% in a day). The rest of the month investors were quiet and trying to comprehend what to do next: sell based on fulfilled expectations or buy commodities, high yield bonds, and risky stocks. Read more »

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The facts about poverty in the United States.

Nearly one-in-six Americans remain below the poverty line as the country grapples with low growth and moderate jobs growth. To qualify for poverty a family of four must earn less than $22,811. Census Bureau painted a detailed picture of the difficulty many Americans are facing, including declining household earnings. Below, 11 sad statistics from the report.

  • 46.2 million Americans are under the poverty line — that’s 15.7 percent of the country
  • 1-in-15 American households earned less than $11,406, the second highest percentage since 1967
  • Median household incomes fell 1.5 percent to $50,100
  • 48.6 million Americans did not have health insurance in 2011 (down from 2010) Read more »
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QE3: время зафиксировать прибыль или оставаться в тренде?

С начала сентября 2012 года индекс S&P500 вырос на 3,87%. Подобному росту рынок обязан двум дням: 6 сентября, когда председатель Европейского Центрального Банка объявил о выкупе проблемных активов (рост S&P500 на 2.02% за день) и 13 сентября, когда глава ФРС Бен Бернаке объявил о выкупе MBS на 40 млрд. долл. в мес. (рост S&P на 1,63% за день). В остальные дни месяца инвесторы пребывали в тишине и осмысливали, что делать дальше: продавать на сбывшихся ожиданиях или покупать commodities, high yield bonds, и  risky stocks. Read more »

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Amazon: Is the Bubble Repeating?

Amazon share prices have grown by over 40% since the beginning of the year. The company’s capitalization is more than $110B with $377M in earnings for the last 12 months. This means that the capitalization to earnings ratio is approximately 300. Is the price of the company fundamentally justified?

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Democrats and Republicans: what does it mean for the stock market?

“How the stock market’s sectors will do if President Obama gets another four years, or the country gives the nod to Republican challenger Mitt Romney? In spite of conventional Wall Street wisdom, stock prices, corporate profits and the economy as a whole post better performance under Democratic administrations than Republican ones, according to Sam Stovall, chief equity strategist for S&P Capital IQ. He wriOtes that although Democrats are the “‘tax and spend’ party, the important part of that equation may be the ‘spend.’ When you spend, that usually improves the economy and increases corporate earnings.” Read more »

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Эмоции инвесторов в двух простых картинках.

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First Prize for a Great Recession Framework: Bridgewater Associates

“Will we ever pull out of the Great Recession?  Why is it taking so long? Let me tell you about a hedge fund group that has the best way to think about it that I’ve ever read.  But first, some history. The Summer of 2008 is when things really started to hit the fan. And now as the Summer of 2012 comes to a close, we’re four years into the Great Recession.  We’re also approaching the four year presidential administration mark, the point at which people ask themselves the famous question “Am I better off now than I was four years ago?” Read more »

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